Numerous studies have compared machine learning (ML) and discrete choice models (DCMs) in predicting travel demand. However, these studies often lack generalizability as they compare models deterministically without considering contextual variations. To address this limitation, our study develops an empirical benchmark by designing a tournament model, thus efficiently summarizing a large number of experiments, quantifying the randomness in model comparisons, and using formal statistical tests to differentiate between the model and contextual effects. This benchmark study compares two large-scale data sources: a database compiled from literature review summarizing 136 experiments from 35 studies, and our own experiment data, encompassing a total of 6,970 experiments from 105 models and 12 model families. This benchmark study yields two key findings. Firstly, many ML models, particularly the ensemble methods and deep learning, statistically outperform the DCM family (i.e., multinomial, nested, and mixed logit models). However, this study also highlights the crucial role of the contextual factors (i.e., data sources, inputs and choice categories), which can explain models' predictive performance more effectively than the differences in model types alone. Model performance varies significantly with data sources, improving with larger sample sizes and lower dimensional alternative sets. After controlling all the model and contextual factors, significant randomness still remains, implying inherent uncertainty in such model comparisons. Overall, we suggest that future researchers shift more focus from context-specific model comparisons towards examining model transferability across contexts and characterizing the inherent uncertainty in ML, thus creating more robust and generalizable next-generation travel demand models.

The importance of tuning hyperparameters in Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) is established through empirical research and applications, evident from the increase in new hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms and benchmarks steadily added by the community. However, current benchmarking practices using averaged performance across many datasets may obscure key differences between HPO methods, especially for pairwise comparisons. In this work, we apply Linear Mixed-Effect Models-based (LMEMs) significance testing for post-hoc analysis of HPO benchmarking runs. LMEMs allow flexible and expressive modeling on the entire experiment data, including information such as benchmark meta-features, offering deeper insights than current analysis practices. We demonstrate this through a case study on the PriorBand paper's experiment data to find insights not reported in the original work.

In deep geological repositories for high level nuclear waste with close canister spacings, bentonite buffers can experience temperatures higher than 100 {\deg}C. In this range of extreme temperatures, phenomenological constitutive laws face limitations in capturing the thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) behavior of the bentonite, since the pre-defined functional constitutive laws often lack generality and flexibility to capture a wide range of complex coupling phenomena as well as the effects of stress state and path dependency. In this work, a deep neural network (DNN)-based soil-water retention curve (SWRC) of bentonite is introduced and integrated into a Reproducing Kernel Particle Method (RKPM) for conducting THM simulations of the bentonite buffer. The DNN-SWRC model incorporates temperature as an additional input variable, allowing it to learn the relationship between suction and degree of saturation under the general non-isothermal condition, which is difficult to represent using a phenomenological SWRC. For effective modeling of the tank-scale test, new axisymmetric Reproducing Kernel basis functions enriched with singular Dirichlet enforcement representing heater placement and an effective convective heat transfer coefficient representing thin-layer composite tank construction are developed. The proposed method is demonstrated through the modeling of a tank-scale experiment involving a cylindrical layer of MX-80 bentonite exposed to central heating.